FTMO Prop Firm Challenge Calculator
$100K Challenge (Step 1) — pass probability & risk of ruin
Free prop firm challenge calculator for FTMO: pass probability, risk of ruin and the rule most likely to fail you. No signup — runs in your browser. The interactive calculator loads with this page's scripts.
How the FTMO $100K Challenge (Step 1) actually works
To pass, you need to grow the $100,000 account by 10% — that's $10,000 of net profit — without ever crossing two loss lines: a daily loss limit of $5,000 (5% in any single trading day) and an overall drawdown limit of $10,000 (10%).
FTMO uses a static drawdown: the floor is fixed at $90,000 (10% below the starting balance) and never moves, no matter how high your equity climbs. That makes it the most forgiving drawdown type — profits you bank become genuine cushion.
You also need at least 4 trading days — hitting the target in one monster session doesn't count on its own. There is no time limit, which quietly changes the optimal strategy: you can afford to trade smaller and slower than most challengers do.
What win rate and R:R do you need to pass FTMO?
Less than most people think — but the combination matters more than either number alone. The break-even line is pure arithmetic: at 1:1 reward-to-risk you need better than a 50% win rate just to stop losing money; at 2:1 the break-even drops to about 33.4%; at 3:1 it's 25%. Everything above break-even is expectancy — the average R you earn per trade — and expectancy is what actually climbs toward the 10% target.
Worked example on this account: risking 1% ($1,000) per trade with a 45% win rate and 2:1 winners gives an expectancy of about +0.35R per trade — roughly $350 on average, every trade, before commissions. At that pace the $10,000 target needs on the order of 29 trades. A more conservative +0.25R edge needs about 40. That's the real question this page answers: not "is my strategy good", but "does my edge clear the target before the loss rules catch a normal losing streak".
Commissions move the break-even more than most traders expect. A cost equal to 0.1R per trade turns a +0.35R edge into +0.25R — a 29% haircut on your expectancy, and a visibly lower pass probability in the simulator. Enter your real per-trade cost; the "commissions excluded" chip exists because leaving it at zero flatters every result.
Why traders fail the FTMO challenge — and what to change
The daily loss limit fails more challenges than the overall drawdown, because losses cluster. At 1% risk per trade, 5 losers in the same day hit the $5,000 daily limit; at 2% risk it only takes 3. A perfectly good strategy with a 50% win rate will produce 5+ consecutive losses regularly — the question is whether your per-trade risk lets a normal bad day survive the rule. The breach-cause bar above tells you which rule is actually ending your simulated runs; if it's mostly the daily limit, cut risk per trade or take fewer trades per day. Fixing the daily stop is cheaper than finding a new strategy.
The other quiet killer is oversized expectations: traders assume the win rate of their best month, not their average one. Run the sliders at your worst recent month too — if the pass probability collapses, the plan was luck-shaped. And don't engineer a one-day pass: the 4-day minimum means the account has to survive normal variance across multiple sessions anyway.
None of this is advice to trade differently than your edge allows — it's arithmetic about which rule your current numbers collide with first. The path-to-pass sliders exist precisely so a failed probability becomes a concrete change: usually a smaller risk number, occasionally a better reward-to-risk, rarely "win more often".
FTMO rules vs other prop firms (2026)
Every firm sells a similar promise with different fine print, and the fine print is what a prop firm challenge calculator actually has to model: drawdown type (static vs end-of-day trailing vs intraday trailing), the daily loss line, minimum days and consistency rules. The table below compares the firms we currently track — each links to its own calculator preloaded with those rules, all running the same engine, so the comparison is apples to apples. The same trader, same strategy, gets meaningfully different pass probabilities across these rule sets; that difference is the honest answer to "which challenge is easiest".
| Challenge | Target | Daily loss | Max drawdown | Min days | Time limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTMO $100K Challenge (Step 1) | 10% | 5% | 10% static | 4 | None |
| FundedNext $100K Stellar 2-Step (Phase 1) | 8% | 5% | 10% static | 5 | None |
| The5ers High Stakes $100K (Step 1) | 10% | 5% | 10% static | 3 | None |
| FundingPips $100K 2-Step Standard (Phase 1) | 8% | 5% | 10% static | 3 | None |
| Topstep $50K Trading Combine | 6% | 2% | 4% EOD trailing | 2 | None |
| Apex Trader Funding $50K Evaluation (Intraday Trailing) | 6% | None | 5% intraday trailing | None | None |
The rules this simulates
| Profit target | 10% ($10,000) |
| Daily loss limit | 5% ($5,000) |
| Max drawdown | 10% — static |
| Minimum trading days | 4 |
| Consistency rule | None |
| Time limit | None |
Questions traders ask
What % of traders pass the FTMO $100K Challenge (Step 1)?
FTMO does not publish official pass rates. This calculator estimates YOUR pass probability by simulating thousands of trade sequences from your own win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade against the published rules: 10% profit target, 5% daily loss limit and 10% max drawdown.
What rules fail people most?
It depends on your numbers — that is exactly what the breach-cause breakdown shows. For most traders the daily loss limit ends more challenges than the overall drawdown, because losses cluster on single days. The FTMO account uses a fixed drawdown floor measured from the starting balance.
Is this affiliated with FTMO?
No. QuantumLog is not affiliated with, endorsed by or paid by FTMO. Rules are transcribed from the firm's own published terms and re-checked by hand — see the "rules last verified" date on this page. Results are never adjusted for any firm.
How accurate is this?
It is an honest approximation, not a promise. Like any prop firm challenge calculator, this one assumes fixed-size independent trades, so real results vary more — streaks and fat tails make live trading swingier. At 5,000 simulated runs the pass probability is accurate to roughly ±1–2 percentage points of the model itself. Numbers are rounded to whole percents on purpose.
Does my data leave my browser?
No. Every simulation runs entirely on your device — nothing you type here is uploaded, stored or sent to any server.
What win rate do I need to pass the FTMO challenge?
There is no single number — win rate only means something next to your reward-to-risk. Break-even is 50% at 1:1, about 33.4% at 2:1 and 25% at 3:1; anything above break-even gives positive expectancy, and the simulator shows whether that expectancy clears the 10% target before a normal losing streak hits the loss rules. A 45% win rate with 2:1 winners passes far more often than a 60% win rate with 1:1 winners at high risk per trade.
Can I use this for other FTMO account sizes?
Yes — change the account size field and every dollar figure rescales. The firm's percentage rules (target, daily loss, drawdown) are the same across sizes, so the pass probability barely moves with size; what changes is the money at stake per trade and the commission drag relative to your risk.
Rules last verified 2026-07-06 against the firm's own published rules. QuantumLog is not affiliated with FTMO.